A Crash Course in Mortgage Rates and Options Trading
Dan Rawitch breaks down why the Fed's 50-basis-point cut was too aggressive, why bond markets pushed back, and why he forecasts rates in the 4% range by 2025. The second half covers his University of Options platform — options, futures, and copy-trading bots — as an income-diversification strategy for loan officers in cyclical markets. Best for LOs curious about market mechanics or supplemental income streams.
The bond market, not the Fed, controls mortgage rates — and right now bonds are signaling the 50-bps cut was a mistake, which is why rates didn't drop as expected.
Takeaways you can run this week
- Use PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) as your primary inflation talking point with clients and agents — Dan says the Fed watches it far more than CPI, and citing it makes you sound credibly informed.
- When explaining why rates didn't fall after the Fed cut, use this framing: 'The Fed only controls the short end — the 1- and 2-year. The 10- and 30-year treasuries do their own thing, and right now bond investors are voting for higher rates.'
- To set client expectations for 2025, Dan's forecast is rates reaching the 4% range — build that into your buyer consultations now as a reason to get pre-approved and purchase before the rush.
- If you want to explore supplemental income via futures trading, Dan recommends starting on a simulator account with one contract ($500 capital), targeting $100/day, and only scaling to two contracts after accumulating $1,500 in gains — do not start with multiple contracts.
- Visit universityofoptions.com to review the Flight Paths copy-trading product, which mirrors Dan's trades into your account automatically — evaluate whether the time requirement (monitoring from market open to ~10 a.m.) fits your schedule before committing capital.
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GET FREE ACCESSThe playbook
- 1. Open a simulator account at University of Options — no real money at risk.
- 2. Complete the futures trading program to learn terminology and account setup.
- 3. Enable the Flight Paths replicator bot; it mirrors Dan's trades into your account.
- 4. Trade one contract only ($500 capital), targeting $100/day.
- 5. Monitor from market open until ~10 a.m., then turn the bot off.
- 6. After accumulating $1,500 in gains (roughly 3 weeks), scale to two contracts and repeat.
Worth quoting
“Inflation comes from too many people chasing too few goods — a good job market has never brought us inflation.”
“It's more of an income generating strategy than an investment strategy — generate as much income with as little capital as possible.”
Best for
LOs who want to explain the rate environment credibly to clients and agents, or who are exploring income diversification during slow market cycles.