What's Happening With the Housing Market
Logan Mohtashami breaks down the current housing market using weekly data: why inventory stays historically low, why prices haven't crashed, and what the 10-year yield (not the Fed funds rate) tells you about where mortgage rates are headed. Loan officers and agents who want to confidently explain market conditions to fence-sitting clients should prioritize this episode.
Track the 10-year Treasury yield and jobless claims — not Fed rhetoric — to know when mortgage rates will meaningfully drop and demand will return.
Takeaways you can run this week
- Share this episode directly with 3-5 real estate agent partners via text with a follow-up message: 'Listened to this and thought of you — what's your take? Would love to chat about how we can use this to help your buyers feel confident right now.'
- When a buyer says 'I'm waiting for rates to drop,' use this exact framing: 'When rates fell from 7.37% to 6% last year, we saw one of the biggest single-month home sale spikes in history — nearly 600,000 homes in one month. The buyers who were already prepared won. Let's get you prepared now.'
- Explain low inventory to clients with this line from Logan: 'Sellers are buyers — 75 to 82% of people who list their home buy another one. So when rates rise, sellers stay put, and inventory stays low. That's why prices haven't crashed.'
- Start tracking two weekly data points from HousingWire's tracker article every Friday: new listings count and active inventory. Reference these numbers in your weekly agent or client communications to position yourself as the market data source.
- Use Logan's discount code 'LOGANVIP20' to get HousingWire Plus at a reduced rate, then pull one chart or data point per week to share on social media or in an email to your database with a one-paragraph plain-English explanation.
- When clients raise the 2008 crash comparison, use this reframe: 'In 2008, inventory exploded because loans went to unqualified buyers on exotic products. Today everyone has a 30-year fixed mortgage — no one can get a margin call on their house. Two completely different markets.'
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GET FREE ACCESSThe playbook
- 1. Monitor the 10-year Treasury yield weekly — mortgage rates follow it, not the Fed funds rate.
- 2. Watch jobless claims; Logan's key threshold is 323,000 on the 4-week moving average. When it breaks above that, the bond market will price in rate cuts ahead of the Fed.
- 3. Check HousingWire's weekly tracker article (published Saturdays) for new listings data, active inventory, and price-cut percentages — these are forward-looking indicators weeks ahead of sales data.
- 4. When labor market softens and the 10-year yield falls, prepare buyer pipeline immediately — demand rebounds fast and inventory stays thin, so pre-approved buyers win.
- 5. Communicate to clients: get pre-approved now, stay ready, and be prepared to move quickly when rates drop — the 'hungry hippo' dynamic means low inventory persists even when demand increases.
Worth quoting
“If you always think housing is 2008, you're never going to pull the trigger — and 10 years of your life goes away.”
“The best hedge on planet earth against inflation was America's 30-year fixed mortgage — fixed debt costs while your wages rise.”
Best for
LOs who struggle to explain current market conditions to hesitant buyers or skeptical agents and want a data-backed framework they can actually repeat in conversations.