A Conversation About Financial Markets, and the Future of Fannie & Freddie with Dan Rawitch
Geoff sits down with market analyst Dan Rawitch for a wide-ranging conversation on interest rate forecasts, the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, stock market valuations, and the deflationary forces Dan believes will keep mortgage rates low into 2021-2022. Best for LOs who want macro context to sound more credible with clients and agents.
Mortgage rates are more likely to fall toward the low 2s than rise, because massive government debt is deflationary — not inflationary — and the Fed will be forced to keep buying bonds or even go negative.
Takeaways you can run this week
- When discussing rates with borrowers or agents, use Dan's simple deflation analogy: 'Your mortgage payment stays fixed at $2,000/month even as wages drop — that's why low rates matter so much right now.' Practice delivering it in under 60 seconds.
- Follow the spread between 30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury (historically ~1–1.5%). When that spread compresses back from its current ~2%, rates drop on their own. Track this weekly and text one market update per week to your top 10 agent partners.
- Use a bond market chart screenshot (from Mortgage Coach's Rate Watch or a similar tool) in your next borrower meeting. Walk them past it and say: 'This is what we watch to advise you on the right time to lock.' Dan's RPM Mortgage built its recruiting and production around this practice.
- When a borrower says 'my uncle thinks rates will drop more,' reference a specific technical range on the bond chart you've already shown them. Dan credits this as the credibility anchor that made lock conversations stick.
- Sign up for Dan's free newsletter 'Swamp-onomics' at UniversityofOptions.com to get weekly economic and bond market analysis you can paraphrase in your own client emails or social posts.
- If Fannie/Freddie privatization moves forward, anticipate higher guarantee fees (G-fees) and price that into client conversations now — Dan flags it as a known headwind even if 12+ months out.
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GET FREE ACCESSThe playbook
- 1. Display a live bond market screen or chart in your office or on a shared screen in Zoom meetings.
- 2. Walk the client or agent past it and say: 'This is what we monitor to advise you on when to lock.'
- 3. Explain bond prices vs. rates in plain language — no jargon, no big words.
- 4. When advising a lock, reference a specific range or level on the chart the client has already seen.
- 5. Send a brief weekly market update (one chart screenshot + two sentences) to borrowers and agents as a drip — no cookie recipes, only rate-relevant insight.
Worth quoting
“People won't necessarily remember what you said, but they'll remember how you made them feel.”
“Don't use jargon — you think that makes you sound smart, it makes you stupid.”
Best for
LOs who want to use market knowledge as a differentiator with agents and borrowers but don't know how to translate macro data into simple, trust-building client conversations.
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